- Pennsylvania has one of the fastest aging populations in the nation.
- It’s a case study in how the US will deal with an increase in retirees and fewer younger workers.
- Older voters told BI that it’s critical that Harris and Trump act on retiree priorities like Social Security.
Maureen, 67, is planning to vote for former President Donald Trump in November because she believes he will be more helpful to her finances now that she is retired.
The northeastern Pennsylvania resident, who asked that her last name be withheld to protect her privacy, said she approaches every election with an open mind and has previously voted for both Republicans and Democrats. Like many Americans, this time, Maureen’s deciding factor is her perception of the economy.
“I’m just looking back over the last eight years, and my 401(k) grew in the four years that Trump was in office,” Maureen told Business Insider. “Do I like his personality? Hell no, I don’t. But my 401(k) went up, interest rates were low, unemployment rates were low.”
Maureen’s view highlights a common theme among American voters, especially those watching their retirement nest egg: They hold whoever is president accountable for how they feel about their finances. Despite the fact that stocks have enjoyed significant gains under both Biden and Trump, and even though the Federal Reserve — not the president — dictates key interest rates, Maureen still blames the current administration for her unhappiness.
Marjorie Klein, 80, lives in Philadelphia and is also retired. Like Maureen, she is concerned about financial security for older Americans — but she will support Vice President Kamala Harris.
“He says he’s going to keep Social Security, but you never know with him,” Klein told Trump’s BI.
Americans like Maureen and Klein can decide the election. A Morning Consult poll conducted Oct. 6-15 found Harris leading Trump in the swing state of Pennsylvania by just one point. However, among voters age 50 and older in Pennsylvania, a recent poll by AARP found Trump leading Harris by eight points.
“We are a key state for this presidency,” said Bill Johnston-Walsh, AARP Pennsylvania state director. “Anyone who wants to will have to go through us.”
Pennsylvania is a case study in the role the federal government will play in supporting the aging US population over the coming decades through programs like Social Security and Medicare.. Pennsylvania voters and economists told BI that the next presidential administration’s plan for a future when retirees far outnumber younger Americans is vital to ensuring the economy and workforce are functioning effectively. As a swing state, it is critical to their campaigns that Harris and Trump listen to the concerns of older Pennsylvanians.
Social Security and Medicare in the hot seat
Pennsylvania is aging fast; has nearly 2.5 million residents over the age of 65, fifth in total in the country. Nationally, the population of adults over 65 is expected to increase by 20 million between now and 2040.
State residents rely heavily on federal government revenue, primarily through Social Security and Medicare, with two rural counties — Fayette and Cambria — among the most dependent in the nation, a report by the bipartisan Economic Innovation Group found.
Benjamin Glasner, a co-author of the EIG report, told BI that the most dependent counties were generally in older, poorer and more rural communities. Cambria, for example, needed more government help after the steel mill closed in the 1980s. Residents’ incomes have yet to recover.
“You can only get so much from Social Security. Medicare can only cover so much, and Medicaid can only cover so much,” Glasner said, adding that it creates “a low level of economic prosperity” dependent on generosity of the program.”
Mike Crossey, 73, has seen the limitations of government assistance in his work as a pensioner’s advocate. The Pittsburgh-area resident wants the next US president to strengthen Social Security, protect pensions and expand Medicare. He said he knows many older Americans living off Social Security alone, which averaged $1,921 nationally for retirees in September.
“I run into people every day who are still making decisions about ‘Do I get my prescriptions today or do I eat lunch today?’ And it just breaks my heart,” Crossey said.
While Trump has denied he will cut Social Security and has previously criticized GOP lawmakers who proposed raising the retirement age to 70, the Committee for a Responsible Budget said Trump’s policies could force cuts to Social Security benefits. in just six years. Harris has proposed strengthening Social Security by making sure rich and big corporations pay what they owe in taxes.
With the Social Security and Medicare Administration Board’s report recently predicting that Social Security will only be able to pay full benefits for the next 11 years, the issue is becoming more pressing, and not just for Pennsylvanians. Richard Fiesta, executive director of the 4 million-member nonpartisan Alliance for Retired Americans, said “Congress and the next administration need to take a serious look at Social Security.”
Some retirees are able to live comfortably amid economic headwinds. However, Fiesta said the decline in defined benefit pension plans, or employer-subsidized pension plans, is contributing to a decline in average retiree savings.
That means more and more Americans rely heavily on Social Security to help keep them financially afloat as they age. The previously mentioned EIG report found that income from government assistance is the fastest-growing part of an American’s income, and it is largely driven by retirees, who make up a growing share of the total US population.
“And we’re seeing that now over the last 10 to 15 years as that generation ages into retirement,” Fiesta said.
An aging workforce creates job mismatches
Pennsylvania’s labor force is already beginning to see imbalances as the younger population shrinks and the number of retirees increases.
Kyle Kopko, executive director of the bipartisan legislative agency Center for Rural Pennsylvania, said local business owners complain about labor shortages. CRP research suggests this is due to fewer older adults working traditional jobs and instead pursuing entrepreneurship to supplement their retirement income. At the same time, lower birth rates mean young adults aren’t filling open roles either, Kopko said.
“If you don’t have a pool of young adults in Pennsylvania that can fill in for some of the retirees, it’s going to create a supply and demand imbalance,” Kopko said, referring to the role retirees play in the economy as consumers, but less so. that is, as workers.
When it comes to the issue of jobs nationwide, Harris has proposed tax incentives for small businesses to spur more hiring, while Trump has focused primarily on boosting U.S. manufacturing to create more jobs.
One potential avenue for job creation – the infrastructure industry – has been mentioned by almost none of the candidates in policy discussions. Bill Candelori, a 68-year-old retired commercial painter, sees this as a missed opportunity. He says Biden’s infrastructure investments, which brought $16 billion to Pennsylvania, were a promising step, but he wants the next administration to go further.
“It’s not just roads and bridges. It’s airports, it’s water authorities, it’s schools, it’s libraries, every public project,” Candelori said. “That’s work for us. And it’s work afterwards in maintaining these facilities. It’s job creation.”
Political steps are being taken
State and local governments have already taken steps to address these growing issues. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, worked with members of his administration to create a 10-year strategic plan that outlined eight top priorities for seniors, including housing, transportation and health and community support.
Pennsylvania Secretary of Aging Jason Kavulich said it’s a bipartisan issue that has bipartisan support: “There’s not a representative or senator I’ve ever sat with that doesn’t care about the seniors in their district.”
JR Reed and Krista Geer, both responsible for agencies on aging across the county, have been meeting with older adults in Pennsylvania to hear their top concerns. Geer said one of the biggest concerns she’s heard about is the high cost of living, which has interfered with their ability to afford medications, gas and groceries. Although inflation has moderated in recent months, it is still historically high and putting pressure on consumers.
“Social Security just isn’t keeping pace with this,” Geer said. The program adjusts payments annually to account for inflation. Critics say it is not tied to a measure that accurately reflects the spending of older Americans.
Reed and Geer agree that the solution is for aging populations to have a larger nest egg, but not one that comes from Social Security. Reed said he hopes Trump or Harris will continue to fund a 1965 federal law that provides funds to states to better support the elderly.
At the federal level, Harris recently proposed a plan that would allow Medicare coverage for seniors’ home care, which Fiesta said would “go a long way” toward helping both older adults and even for family members who would normally take care of them.
Trump has, to date, offered minimal details about his plans to address senior care. Brian Hughes — his campaign’s top adviser — told BI that the presidential candidate and his running mate, JD Vance, “share the principles of using more choice in the marketplace and efficiency as tools for better, more affordable health care “.
Overall, the stakes for an aging US population are high, and bipartisan participation is required to ensure the country is properly prepared for a surge in retirees.
Kavulich said change needs to be addressed head-on.
“Seniors really drive our economies,” Kavulich said. “They run our communities and we have to respect that. And we shouldn’t just think of them as frail, old and vulnerable.”